Sunday, November 16, 2025

Trump says the U.S. can grow its way out of $37 trillion in debt. Ray Dalio’s debt-cycle research says not so fast – Citizen Watch Report

Must read

In an interview with One America News on Thursday, Trump pointed to his “Big, Beautiful Bill” that locks in and expands tax cuts from his first term while adding new deductions on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income for seniors. Combined with his latest round of tariffs, Trump argued, the package will deliver both “record growth” and an unprecedented fiscal windfall.

“We are becoming a country that is so rich, so powerful,” he said. “With the kind of growth we have now, the debt is very low relatively speaking. You grow yourself out of that debt.”

Real GDP rose at a solid 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025, but the debt picture isn’t “very low.” Gross federal debt still sits around $37.4 trillion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is about 100% for 2025, according to Treasury and CBO-linked dashboards.

Tariff receipts are up sharply this year, but estimates show roughly $165 billion by August and about $300 billion on an annualized basis, far short of the trillion needed for paying down the debt.

On top of that, Trump also suggested the government could use tariff revenue to send Americans “distributions” of up to $2,000, which would go into consumers’ pockets instead of helping to offset budget deficits.

But Dalio, who has studied dozens of major debt cycles, wrote in his 2018 book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises that during booms, “lending supports spending and investment, which in turn supports incomes and asset prices,” temporarily pushing growth “above the consistent productivity growth of the economy.” But that can’t last, he warned — “eventually income will fall below the cost of the loans.”
https://www.aol.com/finance/trump-says-u-grow-way-100300111.html

h/t Emeraldlight



Source link

More articles

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Latest article