Four Democrat US Senate Candidates Received More Votes than Kamala Harris in Prior Presidential Election – Odd of This Happening is “Effectively Zero” in Historical Record * The Gateway Pundit * by Jim Hoft

Four different Democrat US Senate candidates from traditionally red states won more votes than Kamala Harris did in those same states just 2 years ago.

This has never happened before in US history going back to at least the end of the Second World War.

Here are the numbers from these formerly traditional red states in 2026 versus 2024.

Chart and graph via Grok.

Jimmy Talarico topped them all. The “Jesus is trans” liberal freak who has a penchant for trans kids won over 609,732 more votes than Kamala Harris in his Texas Senate race.

TGP asked Grok if this has ever happened in US elections before – Never have four candidates received more votes than their presidential candidate two years earlier.

It did happen with two candidates in 2018. Democrats Joe Manchin (WV) and Jon Tester (Mont.) received more votes than the last real Democrat candidate, Hillary Clinton, did in their states in 2016. This also seems odd.

According to Gemini by Google:

The scenario you are describing—where a down-ballot candidate in a midterm election receives a higher absolute vote total than their party’s presidential nominee received in the same jurisdiction two years earlier—is extremely rare…

Under standard conditions in modern U.S. politics, the probability of this occurring in four separate state Senate races during a single midterm cycle is near zero.

More from Grok:

Question: What are the odds that four different state Senate races in one midterm election, the Democrat winner would have more votes than the Democrat party candidate in the presidential election 2 years earlier? Compare to this to ALL previous US midterm elections.

Very low — approaching zero in the modern historical record. Midterm turnout is typically 15–25 points lower than the prior presidential election (often 40–50% of voting-eligible population vs. 60%+ in presidential years). A Senate candidate therefore almost never receives more absolute (raw) votes in a state than that state’s prior presidential nominee, even when they outperform on vote share.

Why the math makes four such races improbable

• Presidential candidates usually capture 45–55% of a high-turnout electorate. A midterm Senate winner needs both unusually high relative performance and a relatively high midterm turnout in the same state to clear the prior presidential raw total.
• Typical retention is in the 70–85% range of the prior presidential candidate’s votes (or less). Examples from 2022 (vs. 2020 Biden totals):
  • Pennsylvania: Fetterman ~2.75 million vs. Biden ~3.46 million.
  • Arizona: Kelly ~1.32 million vs. Biden ~1.67 million.
  • Similar shortfalls appear in other competitive 2022 races.

Historical comparison across all prior U.S. midterms
Post-WWII midterms (roughly 20 cycles from 1946–2022, with ~33 Senate races each) show no well-documented cases of even one or two midterm Senate winners (two in 2018) exceeding the prior presidential nominee’s raw votes in the same state, let alone four in a single cycle.

Even in presidential years, total Senate votes are usually slightly lower than presidential votes in the same state (the “Senate undervote”); exceptions are rare and small (mostly Montana in certain cycles).

Four simultaneous cases in one midterm would require an exceptional combination of elevated midterm turnout + large vote-share overperformance in multiple states at once. Nothing in the historical record of U.S. midterms indicates this has occurred.

More from Grok.

Question: Can you give the odds of this happening in a number please?

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Roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 500 (or lower) for any given modern midterm, and effectively 0 in the historical record.

…If the per-race probability of a midterm Senate winner clearing the prior presidential raw total is on the order of 1–5% under typical conditions (and lower in lower-turnout midterms), the chance of four independent occurrences in one cycle is very small. A simple binomial approximation with ~10–15 relevant Democratic-won or competitive races yields probabilities well below 1%, consistent with the complete historical absence of the pattern.

This needs to be investigated.