The warning lights aren’t blinking anymore. They’re screaming. Ray Dalio says the country is drifting toward civil war. Foreclosures in Florida and Nevada are climbing higher than during the pandemic. Subprime car loans are defaulting at the fastest pace in fifteen years. And tonight, President Trump will speak from the Oval Office. Not to calm things down, but to extend a shutdown that’s already freezing federal paychecks. The system isn’t cracking apart by accident. It’s being pulled that way.
Dalio doesn’t speak to shock. He speaks because the numbers are turning red.
“We’re in wars. There is a financial, money war. There’s a technology war, there’s geopolitical wars, and there are more military wars. And so we have a civil war of some sort which is developing in the U.S. and elsewhere, where there are irreconcilable differences.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/ray-dalio-says-the-u-s-is-headed-for-civil-war-with-either-side-exerting-tests-of-power-on-their-rivals/
His concern isn’t just politics. It’s math. The country owes more than it earns. Debt now stands at 125 percent of GDP. Interest payments are close to what we spend on defense. If rates rise or growth slows, Washington will face a choice between default and deep cuts.
“When debt grows faster than income, it’s like plaque in the arteries… choking off productive spending.”
https://qz.com/ray-dalio-federal-deficit-debt
The housing market is already showing strain. In Florida, one in every 814 homes is in foreclosure. In Nevada, it’s one in every 831. These aren’t local problems. They’re early warnings.
“Florida and Nevada now lead the nation in foreclosure rates… Lakeland, Cape Coral, and Ocala are among the worst-hit metros.”
https://themortgagepoint.com/2025/10/09/q3-foreclosure-activity-experiences-annual-increases/
“The persistence of this trend could be an early indicator of emerging borrower strain in some areas.” — Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM
https://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2025/10/09/10268873.htm
Car loans tell the same story. Subprime delinquencies have passed 2009 levels. Even borrowers with good credit are falling behind. The average monthly payment is $750, and one in five drivers now pays over $1,000. That cannot hold.
“Subprime auto delinquencies have now surpassed 2009 levels, reaching a 15-year high… Even prime borrowers are falling behind.”
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/auto-loans-subprime-late-payments-1d8bb33c
“You don’t default on your way to brunch. You default when the math stops working.” — Jim Osman, Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2025/07/15/theyre-skipping-car-payments-thats-the-final-warning-sign/
And tonight, Trump will speak from the Oval Office. Not to reopen the government or calm markets, but to double down. He plans to cut what he calls “popular Democrat programs” and keep back pay frozen for federal workers.
“We’re going to be cutting some very popular Democrat programs… They wanted to do this, so we’ll give them a little taste of their own medicine.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/10/10/federal-government-shutdown-day-10-trump-live-updates/86551198007/
Debt is rising. Defaults are spreading. The divide between states, classes, and parties keeps widening. And the White House seems ready to press harder. If Dalio’s warning is right, this moment won’t calm the country. It will test how far one side can go before the other breaks.