Thursday, October 9, 2025

Roasted coffee prices are up 22% in the past year. There’s a 50% tariff on coffee from Brazil. That’s the nation’s biggest coffee supplier. – Citizen Watch Report

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Fox Business dropped this bombshell on September 15, calling out how roasted coffee prices jumped 22 percent over the last year, pinning it straight on the 50 percent tariff President Trump slapped on Brazilian imports back in August, since Brazil pumps out 30 percent of what we drink here. This hit right as the Bureau of Labor Statistics clocked that 21.7 percent retail hike for August alone, the worst since the late 1990s, and it ties back to Trump’s trade grudge match with President Lula over human rights gripes tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, much like the 2018 steel tariffs that jacked up soda can costs by 15 percent and killed jobs in the heartland. Trump’s crew cooked this up as leverage for a deal, but it just reroutes beans to China, where they’re snapping up 538,000 bags this half-year, leaving us to chase pricier Colombian stock that adds a 10 percent premium per ICE futures. Short term, your corner shop bumps drip coffee 50 cents a cup, like Corvo in New York did last week, and small roasters warehouse beans to dodge the hit while they can; medium term, if no exemption lands by December, expect 15 percent more on shelves and supply snags that squeeze independents out. National Coffee Association’s Bill Murray griped it’s “hitting families hard,” while Cecafe’s Nelson Ferreira blamed the tariff for that 30 percent arabica spike on ICE, and Reddit’s r/inflation crowd’s fuming about shrinkflation in bags. Truth is, BLS pegs the rise at 20.9 percent overall, not quite 22 for roasted alone, and weather whacks in Brazil cut output 10 percent this crop, so tariffs pile on real shortages, not just politics. When a morning fix turns into a tax on the working stiff, the trade game’s rigged against the guy pouring it.



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