The Making of a PandemicThe Making of a Pandemic
By AXEL TILLMANN
300,000,000 people worldwide without work, 82.6% increase in female suicides in Japan, the homeless rate in California has drastically increased, the destruction of the middle class is continuing, people don’t receive or opt not to receive needed medical treatments…… the list of disastrous news is almost endless.
On top, we have just entered again the cold war of our lives, also known as total lockdown.
How did we get there?
I have personally watched the news development since the beginning of the year, as early as January where news hit “about some dangerous virus hitting the world” and consequently the US. But I am a seasoned crisis news absorber, granted I fell once for it. 2005 when the so-labeled dangerous, killer Bird Flu (H5N1) hit the news channels. I had a friend in Switzerland whom I asked to obtain for my family the then in Switzerland obtainable Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) so that I could protect myself and my family in case I got effected by an outbreak. The reality of it all given the raw numbers it would have been easier to win at the tables in Vegas than catching the Bird Flu. But the dooms day press described it otherwise. Additionally, the product was only “effective” if taken with in 24h – 48h after contamination at a time when you most likely had yet no symptoms.
Every year we have dooms day news, mostly Epidemics but we went through a few Pandemic alarms H3N2, H2N2, H1N1 over the last 100 years. So, what is the difference between an Epidemic and a Pandemic?
Truth: What is the definition of a Pandemic?
Miriam Webster’s answer to this is: “an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area (such as multiple countries or continents) and typically affects a significant proportion of the population: a pandemic outbreak of a disease, a global pandemic
Influenza pandemics seem to strike every few decades and to kill by the million—at least 1M in 1968; perhaps 100M in the “Spanish” flu of 1918-19.
The CDC and WHO add to this definition that the underlying cause must be new (or the new fad word “novel”).
In difference the Epidemic is the same with the exception that it is more “localized” and doesn’t affect a larger region or even the entire world. Both imply drastic increase in infections and we typically would see an exponential curve associated with this.
The reason I chose the left graph, is the atypical curve outbreak of the 2017-18 and prior to this the 2009-2010 flu season, both breaking records?
Dare: Why didn’t we call the 2017-18 Flu Season a Pandemic and why didn’t we go into lockdown?
Yes, this is really the question – Why? First of all, the WHO’s and CDC’s (and other government’s call for Pandemic is not defined. My scientific knowledge teaches me that we need to have “definitions” and “markers” against which we measure and label. And it is obvious that those definitions are missing. Are we concerned by the number of people infected, or by the number of people that die? And at what percentage should we actually react?
Don’t get me wrong, on an individual level any loss of a life is tragic, especially if it is premature. But it is also the way of our human existence.
The Bubonic plague has a death rate without treatment of 30% – 90% which means our immune system is not optimally equipped to fight this infection. In history (without the antibiotics of today) 25 million in one period and 50 million at another time died from Bubonic plaque.
In difference, due to multiple infections per person, an estimated 1,000,000,000 (This is 1 Billion) common cold infections occur per year in the US alone! Common Cold is a viral infection caused by a Corona Virus (important to remember). (Source WebMD: read here). And depending on your pre-existing conditions people can die from complications of the Common Cold (Source RTMagazine: read more)
A further data point is the 2017-18 flu season where in the US alone an estimated 45 million people got sick with influenza, 21 million people going to a health care provider, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths from influenza. This number was historically exceeded by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, when an estimated 60 million people were sick with influenza.
Truth: We cannot leave definitions up for interpretation and must request clear numbers
In order to call something a Pandemic we need to clearly define how much percentage of the population need to get sick, how many are hospitalized, and how many died Pandemicmin All three numbers need to stay in a clear ration, because 1 Billion infections but very low percentage of hospitalization and extremely low death rate doesn’t qualify for a call for Pandemic.
The other numbers to be defined I will call Pandemicmax which should indicate when you deploy drastic measures such as a nationwide or worldwide lockdown
And this needs to be balanced against the age-old principal that you should not cause more harm than you are trying to prevent!
More of this later.
So fast forward to today, we just engaged into the second full lockdown, in California and some other states and the question is why. To judge this, we need to understand many varied factors.
What are Coronaviruses?
Corona viruses are a big family of different viruses (Source WebMD: read here). “Corona” is a descriptive term for the appearance of a biological element and has been oversimplified in the recent pictures that we have all been accustomed to. As previously stated, the common cold is predominantly caused by a Corona Virus. So are MERS, SARS, Avian (Flu) and many more.
Truth: here is a more formal definition of Corona Virus
Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more varieties can cause severe illness and death. In cows and pigs, they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis.
Coronaviruses constitute the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae, in the family Coronaviridae, order Nidovirales, and realm Riboviria. They are enveloped viruses with a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome and a nucleocapsid of helical symmetry (hence Corona) The genome size of coronaviruses ranges from approximately 26 to 32 kilobases, one of the largest among RNA viruses. They have characteristic club-shaped spikes that project from their surface. (Source Wikipedia: read more..)
So, what makes one Corona Virus more dangerous than the other. And how do we detect this, and lastly who will be affected by the outcome?
If we assume for one second that the currently presented numbers of 1,549,518 worldwide death “due to COVID” are true and we corelate this to the 7,800,000,000 population then we come to a death rate as percentage of population of 0.019%. If we try to present the numbers to the alleged infection rate 67,895,387 (reported of positive PCR tests), we come to 2.28% of the reported infected cases. But the later number is relatively meaningless, and so is actually the reported death rate too. Why?
Dare: PCR Test are useless
First of all, let me explain using the Lego® building technology the way we constructed the PCR test:
For our arguments sake this is a corona virus. No test is isolating this virus in either your blood or salvia. And according to the various published articles available, nobody ever truly isolated this virus to create a so called “gold standard” for identification. The different colors represent the different bases A T C G (sorry folks I couldn’t find a LEGO picture with only 4 color stones)
A T G C the 4 base building blocks to our DNA
The entire RNA virus consists of ~35,000 bases sequence. I would be happy if we developed a test that matches the entire 35,000 sequence – but we didn’t. The foundation for the PCR test takes a small snippet of the entire sequence:
…. and makes this the “marker” that the replicator/multiplier (PCR test) is duplicating in order to achieve a measurable amount that would be considered “positive”. To be precise PCR cannot duplicate an RNA snippet, but only DNA snippets hence we need to convert this snippet using a RT (Reverse Transcriptase) process to make it “PCRable ” (all scientists out there – yes there is even more to it, but I keep it simple).
From here on the opinions about the reliability and the approach of this “snippet-replicator” amplification are falling far apart. Many scientists around the world feel that the PCR test is not a valid method to either determine the existence of the virus or even further the existence of an infection. Among the critics is the Inventor and Nobel Laureate of the PCR test Kary Mullis. As he clearly states (watch here), that there is a misinterpretation of the PCR at the root here. Amplified enough you can interpret the prevalence of almost anything in anybody. (Historical context: the PCR came to bare around the AIDS outbreak, and ironically enough in this and other videos Kary questions the correlation of HIV virus to the outbreak of the illness of AIDS and I am certain he would question the prevalence of a Corona Virus to a potential death).
I remember I was once part of a research group that also questioned the validity of the understanding of the DNA (and consequently also RNA) as “A serial chain of information”, but we found we should view this more as a multi-branching hierarchical decision tree. I know, this is a mouth full, but the significance is, that based on the position within the long information chain the same “pattern” can and should have a different meaning. As the co-author of a computer science patent for the invention of a descriptive language to describe these “decision trees” I know the significance between serial information and the assumption of a tree structure.
The importance of this statement is if you look for a sequence “A T A A G C C” you might find this sequence many times within our DNA or even other biological substance. But it would be an oversimplification to assume every single occurrence of it would have the same meaning or function. We believed that if above sequence would be preceded by different modifiers i.e. “ A C” vs “C T” the same “A T A A G C C” would mean something different.
Kary now states that those snippets can come from anywhere and can be anywhere in our body and now with the PCR amplification you can test positive for something, that you don’t even have or that doesn’t cause an infection (i.e. is the virus’ RNA is broken and floating in your body). Furthermore the “amplification”, if done often enough, can proof something to be positive. This explains why Elon Mask took in one day 4 tests with 2 being positive and 2 being negative! In science I learned two opposite things cannot be true at the same time!!!!
Yes, our entire statistics is based on this inadequate test. We are destroying lives and economies with invalid proof.
Truth: Life is more complex than some want us to believe
As I wrote in a previous article about correlations and assumptions they only work if we have a simple system. I introduced the word “chaos-system” meaning the number of variables far exceeds the capability of mathematical modeling.
To assume that one programming sequence has a precise and defined outcome in the complexity of our body is plainly a false assumption.
Even if we believe that there is a “bad’ virus out there, why doesn’t it affect most of the population. What are the mechanisms by which the virus can attach to a cell and run its havoc? Dr. Bruce Lipton (and many others) tries to explain the interactions in the body with the science of Epigenetics, fundamentally believing that our subconscious sends out commands and instructs cells to do one thing or another, for example to accept a message (called mRNA). We know in fact so little about life, that we make constantly the wrong assumptions. The difficult system of Enzymes, Hormones, RNA, the food we consume, Ribosomes,…. and the list goes on (nice NIH reading).
Dare: Who is the one who can unambiguously declare that they know how everything works?
I give you the short answer: Nobody except for our creator. And if I am right, I need to look at outcome (statistics) and make a judgement call. Despite what the mainstream media or many politicians are touting we do not have a disastrous death rate as compared to Spanish Flu, or Bubonic Plaque. And I even assert that the numbers or the interpretation of the numbers are manipulated. As my statistic professor stated: “Figures never lie, but liars figure”.
Dare: What is the different between dying “from” vs. “with” COVID?
I personally like extreme examples: if you detect postmortem (through the questionable PCR test) that you had COVID but you were killed by a gunshot right into the heart, did you die “with” COVID or “from” COVID? Anybody with their head still on their shoulders should agree you died with COVID not from COVID, and furthermore COVID should not even be mentioned. How ridiculous of me?? Ok what about stage 4 cancer? What about 140-pound overweight? What about congestive heart failure? Or what about depression?
The last one being especially important to me for the next analysis. This year we are tracking about 3,000,000 death in the United States or which we have a bit over 10% “with” COVID and about 1% “from” COVID (Source CDC). I wanted to provide a link to the current CDC statistics that I have used so many times, remarkably the data columns have been renamed and one column has been omitted. The column “Death with COVID-19” is now renamed in to COVID-19 death, and the column “Death from COVID-19” has been removed. Today’s link now brings up a modified table (see for yourself). But may it be as it is, one thing that is still clear is that total death as of today is 2,703,232 and “COVID-19” death is 261,530 less than 10% as mentioned before.
If we don’t know for certain, if everything else fails, let go down to the highest abstraction layer which is total death divide by total population (as shown in the graph above). The last few years the number was 8.6 or higher. As of today, we are tracking 8.167 barely a concern. Even if we argue we have not reached the end of the year, and reporting accuracy is delayed another >200,000 citizens would have to die before we reached the past maximum death rate.
Dare: The cures from lockdown to vaccination – creating more problems?
Given the numbers, the lockdown seems to create continuously more havoc than the problem that it is trying to prevent. Given the fact that other countries didn’t have lockdowns and are doing fine, the wisdom needs to be questioned. Also, the state of California (especially SoCal) was almost on a continuous lockdown, and still has the “alleged” highest contamination rate. Other statistical analysis suggests something is not right here.
This leads us now to the proposed mass vaccinations that as far as I can see are all mRNA based. mRNA what is it precisely? The easiest explanation I can provide is that it is the USB stick equivalent to your human instruction set – the DNA of your cells.