First Mover Asia: Bitcoin, Altcoins Rebound Amid Light Trading

First Mover Asia: Bitcoin, Altcoins Rebound Amid Light Trading

By Muyao Shen, Damanick Dantes

Bitcoin topped $42,500 on Sunday after reaching its lowest mark since late September the day before; ether reaches over $3,200.

Market moves: Bitcoin led crypto’s small recovery from last week’s sell-off, but spot volume remained thin over the weekend.

Technician’s take: BTC upside is limited as long-term technical indicators turned negative.


Bitcoin (BTC): $41,845 +0.1%

Ether (ETH): $3,154 +2.0%


S&P 500: $4,677 -0.4%

DJIA: $36,231 -0.01%

Nasdaq: $14.935 -0.9%

Gold: $1,796 +0.2%

Market moves

Bitcoin pushed past the $42,000 level over the weekend, after last week’s broad market bloodbath, which sent the No. 1 cryptocurrency by market capitalization spiraling toward $40,000 from about $48,000. At the time of publication, ether and most of the altcoins in CoinDesk’s top 20 by market capitalization were up, although still way down over the past week.

Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies fell last week amid the Federal Reserve’s release of minutes from its December meeting. The Fed signaled that it would tighten monetary policy faster than was once expected.

The leading cryptocurrency fell to as low as $40,505.3 on Coinbase on Saturday, its lowest level since Sept. 21, before it rebounded above $42,000, data from TradingView and Coinbase show.

But as markets in Asia open, it remains uncertain whether the recovery will last since bitcoin’s spot trading volume across major centralized exchanges on Sunday was thin, according to data compiled by CoinDesk. (At the time of publication, bitcoin’s price had sunk below $41,900.)


Bitcoin fell for six straight days before the weekend and the downward move escalated after the Fed minutes showed that policymakers discussed aggressive interest rate hikes and a faster pace to normalize its balance sheet.

“The minutes confirmed a strong hawkish bias with markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed [rate] hike in March,” Singapore-based crypto quant trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its Telegram channel on Sunday. “…In the bigger picture, it seems likely that the all-time highs in BTC and ETH will remain capped for most of 2022 as a result of central bank tightening.”

Technician’s take

Bitcoin Oversold Within Downtrend; Resistance at $45K

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a two-month downtrend, defined by a series of lower price highs.

The cryptocurrency was down about 9% over the past week as upside momentum continued to slow.

There is minor support around $40,000, which could stabilize the current pullback. However, upside appears limited around the $45,000 resistance level. This means buyers could quickly take profits if a price bounce occurs.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is the most oversold since Dec.11, albeit within a price downtrend.

Over the long-term, BTC is vulnerable to further selling, especially if buyers fail to hold the $38,000-$40,000 support zone over the weekend. On the weekly chart, the RSI is not yet oversold, which suggests the downtrend remains intact.

Lower support is around $28,000, which is near the June 2021 low.

BTC is roughly two weeks away from registering a downside exhaustion signal, which typically precedes a countertrend price bounce. Still, similar oversold readings on the daily chart have been delayed as buyers remain on the sidelines.


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