Friday, November 21, 2025

Russia locks 30-year deal to send all natural gas to China, Europe gets nothing

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Europe is frozen out. Russia just rerouted its natural gas straight to China for 30 years. Berlin is stranded. Brussels miscalculated.

“Russia and China have agreed to move forward with a new gas pipeline… Gazprom said a ‘legally binding memorandum’ had been signed to develop the pipeline.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/2/russia-china-ink-deal-to-build-new-gas-pipeline-as-they-deepen-energy-ties
The EU sanctioned Russia. Russia sanctioned Europe’s energy future. The pipeline bypasses Berlin and flows east. Permanently.

“The long-planned Power of Siberia 2 could carry an additional 50 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually from Russia’s Arctic Yamal fields to China via Mongolia.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/2/russia-china-ink-deal-to-build-new-gas-pipeline-as-they-deepen-energy-ties
Fifty billion cubic meters are diverted to China. Germany loses a lifeline. Europe loses leverage. The siphon is calculated.

“Deliveries through the existing Power of Siberia pipeline from eastern Siberia to China would increase to 44 bcm a year, up from 38 bcm.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/2/russia-china-ink-deal-to-build-new-gas-pipeline-as-they-deepen-energy-ties
Russia expands exports. China gains. Europe receives nothing. Winter approaches. Energy insecurity tightens like a vise. Timing amplifies the pressure.

“Russia and China on Tuesday signed a major deal to build the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/02/power-of-siberia-2-russia-signs-new-gas-pipeline-deal-with-china.html
Delayed for years. Now pushed through. Geopolitics doesn’t wait. Germany’s energy policy collapses under its own weight.

“The agreement — if borne out — is a diplomatic win for Moscow after years of stalled talks.” https://www.axios.com/2025/09/03/russia-china-natural-gas-deal
Moscow scores a win. Brussels suffers a loss. Russia is not isolated. It has leverage. The EU’s LNG stopgap is expensive, insecure, and dependent on goodwill.

Germany will buy U.S. gas at a markup. Ideology doesn’t heat homes. Sanctions don’t power factories. Infrastructure lags. Prices soar. Supply is conditional. Europe’s pivot is desperate.

The EU bet on moral clarity. Russia bet on permanence. China bet on volume. The continent that once dictated energy flows is now paying the cost of misjudgment. Leverage slipped from its grasp. Power reveals itself in structure, not intentions.



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