Some Surprises in Last Battleground Polls, but Still a Deadlock
A rise for Kamala Harris in the Sun Belt, and a dip in the Northern swing states.
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump stayed deadlocked to the finish in the final New York Times/Siena College polls of the 2024 presidential election, though there may be a hint she has ticked up in the final stretch.
The race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency.
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Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.
We do a lot to account for this, but in the end there are no guarantees.
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Team Kamala is acting confident.
HARRIS CAMPAIGN CHAIR: The early vote is exactly as we’d like to see it.
(Republicans lead the early vote in AZ, NV, NC; black turnout is way down; PA swung 20 points Republican in mail-in voting; should I go on)pic.twitter.com/erN6vDJRFt
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024