President Donald Trump has amplified a bombshell election analysis alleging a remarkably consistent voting pattern across dozens of Senate and gubernatorial races in the 2026 midterm elections.
The theory, dubbed the “85/15 Algorithm,” suggests that Republican candidates received approximately 85% of President Trump’s 2024 vote share, while Democrats gained an amount equivalent to the remaining 15 percentage points of Trump’s share, as The Gateway Pundit reported earlier.
Trump shared a post from the Truth Social account Truth Is Freedom, which presented the alleged statistical pattern across 59 Senate and gubernatorial contests.
The analysis compared the 2026 results with Trump’s performance against Kamala Harris in 2024.
According to the post, one mathematical formula reportedly describes the shift:
Republican 2026 vote share = 0.85 × Trump’s 2024 vote share
Democrat 2026 vote share = Harris’s 2024 vote share + 0.15 × Trump’s 2024 vote share
In plain English: for every 1,000 Trump points from 2024, roughly 850 stayed with the Republican candidate while 150 landed on the Democrat side. Republicans retained about 85% of Trump’s share in Senate races and 86% in gubernatorial races. The formula explains 88% of the variation.
What makes the pattern so suspicious is its uniformity. It did not matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, and Massachusetts all showed the same roughly 15% shift (p = 0.69).
The Democrat gain was sized by Trump’s 2024 vote total, not Harris’s. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays tightly between 0.846 and 0.853. The 0.85 multiplier outperformed standard election-swing models in every set of races tested.
Why Key Seats Flipped
At the 0.85 level, any state where Trump received under about 58.5% in 2024 falls below 50% for the Republican candidate in 2026. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, and North Carolina all sat under that line. All of them flipped. Two completely different sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, yet the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. Midterms are normally messy. This one was not.
The Gateway Pundit previously documented the impossible “Drop and Roll” pattern in 2020, in which massive late-night ballot dumps for Biden in battleground states were followed by subsequent batches that locked in nearly perfect Biden-to-Trump ratios, solidifying Democratic victories.
That analysis, first published November 18, 2020, remains unexplained by any election expert without invoking the likelihood of fraud. The associated video has been viewed millions of times.
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