A Food Price Shock is Already in Motion
By Gaurav Kochar
A Food Price Shock is Already in Motion
Timeline: 6–9 months
Most people are dismissing it.
They shouldn’t be.
Here’s what’s happening
Shock #1: Strait of Hormuz
20–30% of global fertilizer trade moves through the Gulf.
Now it’s under pressure.
Supply disruptions
Force majeure on contracts
Urea already up ~30% since Feb
Shock #2: Russia export halt
Russia (≈37% of ammonium nitrate exports)
has paused shipments until April 21.
Right at the start of planting season.
This is the worst possible timing.
Countries exposed right now:
Brazil
Canada
India
Peru
Ukraine
All heading into critical growing periods.
What happens next:
Less fertilizer → lower yields
Lower yields → tighter supply
Tighter supply → higher food prices
We’ve seen this before.
In the 1970s, food inflation hit harder than oil.
It drove the cost-of-living crisis—not energy.
Timeline:
Late 2026 → Yield impacts
2027 → Global food price shock
This doesn’t start with empty shelves.
It starts now… quietly.
And by the time it’s obvious—
It’s already too late to prepare.
Original source: https://x.com/gaurav_kochar/status/2037017490518376689